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Why this transition?
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Isometric images by macrovector
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Transition in numbers
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Scenarios about Amsterdam
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Improbable and nondisruptive
📓 Description
Smart technology and autonomy are considered the main drivers for this scenario, and people are already aware of them. With these, a more sustainable electric mobility can impact air pollution and climate change, but at the same time it could stress out and disrupt the energy infrastructure, since from the energy network point of view it is more challenging to work with sustainable energy then with classical coal power plants. Even all of shared mobility hopes to be able to make electric vehicles accessible to everybody is facing the reality of being still too expensive for those who currently use public transport.
🏙️ The impact of the scenario on the city:
🧑🤝🧑 The impact of the scenario on the citizens:
💥 The reaction to this scenario happening:
💡 Insights:
📓 Description
Smart technology and autonomy are considered the main drivers for this scenario, and people are already aware of them. With these, a more sustainable electric mobility can impact air pollution and climate change, but at the same time it could stress out and disrupt the energy infrastructure, since from the energy network point of view it is more challenging to work with sustainable energy then with classical coal power plants. Even all of shared mobility hopes to be able to make electric vehicles accessible to everybody is facing the reality of being still too expensive for those who currently use public transport.
🏙️ The impact of the scenario on the city:
- Too many possible smart solutions. What smart solution should we adopt?
- The infrastructure needs to adapt to the abundance of smart solutions
🧑🤝🧑 The impact of the scenario on the citizens:
- Citizens need solutions that are affordable for them.
- Citizens want influence on decisions for change.
- Citizens also need to get something out of it.
💥 The reaction to this scenario happening:
- Provide knowledge to enable the city to choose the best solution and fast.
- Clear guidelines for decision makers will help making more effective plans.
💡 Insights:
- Automation will define the scale of the mobility transition
- Buildings will be adapted to make charging of electric vehicles and energy storage safe
- Future climate agreements will continue to shape the energy transition
- In 5 years all shared mobility vehicles will be electric
- In 5 years temporary energy storage in cars and trucks will be affordable and widely accepted
- Smart solutions will make the energy transition happen
- The design of the energy market will be defined at national and European level
- The energy transition will be accelerated through policy
- The energy transition will have an impact on the layout of the street
- The municipality will play a leading role in providing the charging infrastructure
- The purchase price will define who will be able to switch to an electric vehicle
- The type of cooperation between energy markets and infrastructure will define the way the transition will develop
- Urban planners will coordinate and integrate solutions from different players
Probable and nondisruptive
📓 Description
This scenario is in line with what we expect to happen, and we are already prepared for. To get an idea of this scenario we could look at forecasts from consultancy firms like McKinsey’s “Accelerating the energy transition: cost or opportunity? A thought starter for the Netherlands”, which is pretty much an elaboration of the Climate Agreement and the Action Plan: Clean Air. All personal and smaller transport will transition to electric and large parts of large transport will remain fossil for a while, but will transition to hydrogen when available.
🏙️ The impact of the scenario on the city:
🧑🤝🧑 The impact of the scenario on the citizens
💥 The reaction to this scenario happening:
💡 Insights:
📓 Description
This scenario is in line with what we expect to happen, and we are already prepared for. To get an idea of this scenario we could look at forecasts from consultancy firms like McKinsey’s “Accelerating the energy transition: cost or opportunity? A thought starter for the Netherlands”, which is pretty much an elaboration of the Climate Agreement and the Action Plan: Clean Air. All personal and smaller transport will transition to electric and large parts of large transport will remain fossil for a while, but will transition to hydrogen when available.
🏙️ The impact of the scenario on the city:
- The municipality has to carry out the agreements which were made in policy documents, such as the Climate Agreement and Action plan Clean air.
- As a result the energy infrastructure will be under pressure and intensified accordingly to meet demand.
- The city will remain in a transition state between top down and bottom up organization.
- Businesses will be engaged top down and citizens as much possible bottom up, but often still top down.
🧑🤝🧑 The impact of the scenario on the citizens
- Citizens will experience an increase in energy expenditures in the short term. In the long term the energy expenditures will remain within reasonable margins.
- Citizens will change their behaviour slightly. Other major events will have a large impact on citizen behaviour.
- Citizens will buy or lease more electric vehicles. Business will be the frontrunners in adopting electric vehicles (and hydrogen vehicles in the future).
💥 The reaction to this scenario happening:
- The reaction of people would be mild as it would not be a surprise to anybody.
- In a couple of years the reaction of people would have been different as the energy transition in general would not be in this quadrant.
- The energy transition moved from another quadrant (possibly: improbable-disruptive) to this quadrant of probable-nondisruptive. One of the reasons for this move is the Climate Agreement
💡 Insights:
- Drivers will be able to use charging times to engage in other activities
- The spatial distribution of charging points in Amsterdam will be cost-driven
Improbable and disruptive
📓 Description
The developments in this scenario are not believed to be very probable. This is either because of uncertainty in technological development, for example hydrogen fuel, or because the future role of public space seems unclear. The energy and mobility transition together give the opportunity for change in other facets of the urban environment, like increasing green and pedestrian areas for example by moving parking from the streets to hubs.
🏙️ The impact of the scenario on the city:
🧑🤝🧑 The impact of the scenario on the citizens
💥 The reaction to this scenario happening:
💡 Insights:
📓 Description
The developments in this scenario are not believed to be very probable. This is either because of uncertainty in technological development, for example hydrogen fuel, or because the future role of public space seems unclear. The energy and mobility transition together give the opportunity for change in other facets of the urban environment, like increasing green and pedestrian areas for example by moving parking from the streets to hubs.
🏙️ The impact of the scenario on the city:
- Energy and mobility become green.
- The shift in interaction of mobility with the neighborhood will increase social interaction.
- This new spatial layout enables a better integration of the utility infrastructure.
- In general housing and public spaces get more social and environmental value.
🧑🤝🧑 The impact of the scenario on the citizens
- Citizens will feel more and more connected to the city and each other.
- The need for urban transportation is no longer dominating their daily lives.
- The transition enables more inclusive ways of using public space and the mobility infrastructure.
💥 The reaction to this scenario happening:
- City would be more enjoyable outdoors.
- There would be more interaction with the community in the extra public space around living areas.
💡 Insights:
- Hydrogen will be the next step of changes in mobility
- In 10 years in every European city all vehicles will be electric
- In 2 years the cost of ownership for electric transport will be lower than fossil fueled transport
- In 5 years all cars in Amsterdam will be electric
- In 5 years the municipality will ban street charging and will designate alternative areas
- The transition will free up public space for more pedestrian and green areas
- The whole infrastructure will be upgraded to fast-charging
Improbable and non disruptive
📓 Description
The energy and mobility transition will create pressure on behaviour and choices, for example with housing and work. These transitions will also raise the expectations of a bottom up transition organized by the City of Amsterdam, which will have to deal with multiple expectations of citizens, businesses and how to motivate them to take part in the transition.
🏙️ The impact of the scenario on the city:
🧑🤝🧑 The impact of the scenario on the citizens:
💥 The reaction to this scenario happening:
💡 Insights:
📓 Description
The energy and mobility transition will create pressure on behaviour and choices, for example with housing and work. These transitions will also raise the expectations of a bottom up transition organized by the City of Amsterdam, which will have to deal with multiple expectations of citizens, businesses and how to motivate them to take part in the transition.
🏙️ The impact of the scenario on the city:
- Pressure on the municipality to deliver relief to those who don’t own the car
- Pressure on energy networks
- Distributions of supply of the energy through the network
- Pressure on the city to organize bottom up transition
- Engagement of citizens and act as one group
- Businesses need to be motivated to participate
- Translation of best practices of one area to other parts of the city
🧑🤝🧑 The impact of the scenario on the citizens:
- Pressure on the people’s wallet
- Pressure on behaviour and choices, for example housing and work
💥 The reaction to this scenario happening:
- Pressure on the system
💡 Insights:
- Not every private car owner will be able to switch to an electric vehicle
- The transition in the city will happen bottom-up
Why the Living Lab method?The living lab method seeks to develop innovation in a real-life context by initiating a local participatory experiment in which users are invited to co-create the breeding ground for an innovation to happen. Living Labs are usually organized around the need to solve a particular problem and this approach is characterized by a multidisciplinary perspective.
In our Living lab the problem was posed by the ban of the Municipality of Amsterdam on all pollution emitting vehicles in the city centre by 2030. The aim of using the Living Lab method is to engage local stakeholders into an iterative and multidisciplinary process that would allow us to co-create the breeding ground for this transition to happen. As part of online co-creation we used the Doughnut Economics Model by Kate Ratworth adapted by the City of Amsterdam as one of the models of assessing impact of the activities in the city. In our case it was a way to initiate discussion about the impact of each of the scenarios on society and environment. You can read more about Living Lab method at the website of AMS Institute.Meet the team
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